NFL Week 11 Betting Picks, Predictions for Sunday November 17, 2024

Two marquee games on the docket, both with strong trends and massive viewer appeal. 

The AFC showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) and Bills (8-2) in Buffalo has all sorts of storylines, but we’re slapping this ride in reverse after KC’s forced kicker change. For a team with seven of nine wins by a one-score margin, we cannot put our trust—or coin—behind the unwanted, temporary heir to Harrison Butker. 

And so we turn our attention to the other AFC slugfest, Ravens vs. Steelers, where the numbers tug in opposite directions. Baltimore’s unstoppable top-ranked offense. Pittsburgh’s tenacious D. Mike Tomlin’s borderline mastery of Lamar Jackson (1-3 as a starter). 

No, we can’t go there either. But will be watching.

Instead, we’re taking our spend elsewhere, tracking down as many teams that cannot get out of their own way as we can.

Indianapolis Colts at NY Jets

Nobody should rule out the +176 (FanDuel) moneyline if they believe strongly in the see-you-next-year mindset of the Jets entering Sunday’s game. Yes, mathematically, NY is still hanging by a thread, but the six-point output at Arizona is all the arithmetic we need. 

Let’s talk about the Colts since they’ve decided to turn back to quarterback Anthony Richardson. He’s completing barely 44 percent of his passes and tends to tire in the second half of road games (apparently).

But the Colts are better for bettors than they are Shane Steichen’s resume at 7-3 ATS this season and have been in every game in the fourth quarter. Recent trends indicate the Jets might not be strong enough to force the Colts to throw. Last week, the Cardinals rushed for 147 yards, one week after the Texans put up 187 on the ground; the Patriots (112), Steelers (149) and Bills (149), too, all since mid-October.

Aaron Rodgers has done a fine job keeping teams close with his own accuracy issues, and the Colts arrive with more legitimate postseason motivation despite three consecutive losses.

Even if you are concerned the Jets really, really turn it on and set a season-high with 25 (!) points, we ride with the horseshoes. Opponents have six first-quarter touchdowns against the Jets.

The bet: Colts +3.5, Jonathan Taylor first TD scorer, +480 (FanDuel)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions

Running away from the Lions as two-TD favorites is foolish. Mac Jones barely moved the chains last week, and Jacksonville’s only touchdown was scored by the Trevor Lawrence replacement on the ground. Lawrence is still out, and Jacksonville is out of its league, with big changes looming. 

If you need imagery for this blowout, who among the NFL coaching ranks is more likely to toss roadkill on the grill than Dan Campbell? 

That’s what we thought.

Even if you want to pick on the past two showings for the Lions—both wins, mind you—this isn’t a team that plays down to competition. And if anyone can get a locker room to believe Jared Goff is the second coming after a five-interception outing at Houston, it’s Detroit’s Campbell. 

Houston was unable to run the ball against Detroit. But C.J. Stroud found answers we are almost certain Mac Jones won’t find against the Lions.

The Lions beat the Seahawks by 13, dropped 52 on the Titans (in a 38-point win) and smacked the Cowboys 47-9 on the road. 

The bet: Lions -13.5, Jahmyr Gibbs 25+ receiving yards, +164 (FanDuel)

Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots

On the road. On the grass. Short week.

If you take the recency multipliers and combine them with the enormous egg laid by the Rams’ offense last week, there’s a skyscraper-sized stack of reasons to run away from the road favorites at Foxborough. 

But New England is getting kudos by the bushel for beating a Bears’ team that started two backups at offensive tackle and made merely a modest attempt to run the ball. We’re not saying the Rams are Super Bowl-bound, but the Patriots are still starting a rookie quarterback with minimal playmakers when stacked up against the receivers and running back Matthew Stafford can deploy. 

Kyren Williams stands as the centerpiece of this game plan until the Patriots prove they can stop him. He has 10 touchdowns from scrimmage; New England has 16 total.

Three times this season and twice in the past three weeks, Stafford has doubled up on TD tosses. New England allowed multiple TD passes three times in the last five games.

The bet: Rams -4.5, Matthew Stafford 2+ passing TDs, +110