December 23, 2024

NFL Week 3 Best Sports Betting Picks & Predictions Sunday September 22nd

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There’s a lot to like about the favorites in the NFL three weeks into the season. But the definition of favorite is in the eye of the beholder. 

Relative favorites such as the Detroit Lions (1-1) and Baltimore Ravens (0-2) are off to slower-than-expected starts. That’s in part due to the degree of difficulty involved in competing for home-field advantage last season. 

Now the clock is ticking on turnaround for a few teams. Baltimore faces a Dallas team in a division without a frontrunner but can’t afford to fall to 0-3 with a divisional rival matchup next week. 

Miami Dolphins vs. Seattle Seahawks

Nobody saw Seattle coming as the only undefeated team in the NFC West through two weeks. 

But here stand the Seahawks, short on bluster and heavy on defense, against former Kansas State quarterback Skylar Thompson. He’ll get the start—and presumably a few more—with Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) on injured reserve. 

Let’s not crown their you-know-whats just yet. Yes, Seattle needed overtime to win at New England, and No. 1 RB Kenneth Walker III is doubtful with an oblique injury. But Thompson, like Broncos rookie Bo Nix, isn’t exactly built for this. This, meaning a win in front of the 12s on the road with an offense at less-than-full strength at multiple positions. 

The Seahawks are showing some dynamic traits defensively and will be loading up to make Thompson win the game. Can he? It’s not impossible with speed everywhere outside, starting with Tyreek Hill. But Seattle’s isn’t giving up the big play, and QBs are not being allowed to scan the field in the pocket with McDonald throwing grenades by bringing pressures inside and out. 

We like the Seahawks to cause mistakes and Geno Smith to keep living on the edge without committing the back-breaking turnover.

Seahawks -3 (DraftKings)

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Baltimore Ravens vs. Dallas Cowboys

How did this happen?

The Cowboys at home are getting points against a winless opponent. It’s all true. And by the doing of the Dallas defense and Dak Prescott. 

Last week a streak of 16 consecutive home wins went by the wayside because the New Orleans Saints were made to look the part of the juggernaut Bill Walsh 49ers with Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara shredding the Cowboys at will. 

What’s not an option for Baltimore is controlling the ball – and line of scrimmage – in the same way. 

While Carr ripped apart the Cowboys with short, intermediate and long tosses, it was Kamara who did the bulk of the damage in a rushing attack reminiscent of the Packers from the January wildcard waltz at AT&T Stadium. 

Here’s where the Cowboys can get the job done: Dallas has the big-play receiver in CeeDee Lamb that Baltimore has been unable to contain through two games. If safety Kyle Hamilton can’t play Sunday, double down on this one.

Cowboys +1.5 (FanDuel) 

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There’s a lot to love about the way things are going in Buffalo, even before Josh Allen has fully established his No. 1 receiver. Allen can still claim the 2024 MVP frontrunner status with a silky soft schedule that sets Buffalo up for a 3-0 start for the first time since 2020.

This week, it’s the other Josh Allen – Jacksonville’s high-paid pass rusher who had 17.5 sacks last season – that stands in the way. But that’s not the pressure package that matters. 

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It’s Buffalo and the relentless front seven that could turn the tables on the Jaguars and send QB Trevor Lawrence to an 0-3 start for the first time since Urban Meyer’s charges went 0-5 to start the 2021 season. 

They are also trying to ignite a sagging offense that is tied for 27th in scoring at 15 points per game. But without a consistent ground game, it’s all on Trevor Lawrence to keep the pace with Buffalo. The Bills are third in scoring at 32.5 points per game. 

OVER 44.5 total points (FanDuel)

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